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- Personal Income and Spending Unexpectedly Decline…
Economists missed the boat by a mile on income and expenditures. Income and Outlays image top half from Bloomberg, bottom half from the BEA The BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays report for May 2025 was much weaker than economist’s consensus expected. Spending was a bit higher than I expected. To arrive at real numbers, subtract … Read more - The Road to Incoherence: Arthur Burns…
UPDATE: My concluding paragraph was inadverently deleted from my post, so even if you’ve already read the post, you may want to go back and read my concluding paragraph. Last December, Nathan Tankus wrote an essay for his substack site defending Arthur Burns and his record as Fed Chairman in the 1970s when inflation rose … Read more - Why the Tories’ “put people to…
What do you do when your economy is in the doldrums and you need to kickstart growth? Why, you put more people to work, that’s what you do. This has been the Tories’ strategy since 2010. The sustained attack on welfare benefits has all been focused on “making work pay” – encouraging, and at the … Read more - Risks to growth and inflation helping…
As I write this, the US 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 1.457%, well under the trading range it had established during this quarter. And there are a lot of theories as to why this is happening. I want to spell out how I’m thinking about the yields and what the risks and opportunities are going … Read more - Too many Superheros?
How much content should a franchise produce? A recent WSJ story indicates that the expanding Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) is approaching a deluge. The graph they created certainly indicates a huge increase in content, mostly on TV. How much to produce is an extent decision. On the one hand, the huge success of the Avengers … Read more
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Managerial Econ: Scale Determines Technology
The robotaxi business is getting another entrant, but also a
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Subject notes on behavioural economics –…
Each year I teach an undergraduate subject in behavioural economics.
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HSR’s outstanding reviewers in 2023
The scholars listed below were rated in the top 5% of reviewers for Health Services Research (HSR) in 2023. Their work, and that of all reviewers, is much appreciated. More here. The post HSR’s outstanding reviewers in 2023 first appeared on The Incidental Economist.
Managerial Econ: Scale Determines Technology
The robotaxi business is getting another entrant, but also a different kind of entrant. Zoox, a decade old startup purchased by Amazon in 2020, is expected to launch this year. It has developed a vehicle specifically aimed at the autonomous ride share market without a driver seat or controls, sliding doors in the middle, a
Subject notes on behavioural economics –…
Each year I teach an undergraduate subject in behavioural economics. I have pulled together the notes for the subject into a website, which you can find here. The notes include the subject content, plus “exercises” that form the basis for the tutorials. If you work through the content, you’re effectively getting the same content as
Stanley Fischer – the Central Banker…
Stanley Fischer has passed away at the age of 81. For those of us who have followed monetary policy closely over the years, this is not merely the loss of a prominent economist. It marks the departure of one of the rare practitioners who truly understood what it means to safeguard nominal stability – and
Beat the Rush, Escape New York…
NYC is poised to elect a Zohran Mamdani, socialist madman. Here’s what to expect. Greatest Comeback Surprise in History A week ago, Polymarket betting odd were over 80 percent for former NY governor Andrew Cuomo and under 10 percent for Mamdani. On May 27, Cuomo was over 90 percent. But Mamdani won the primary and
The true scale and impact of…
NEF analysis shows the cuts will hit ill and disabled people by almost £2bn more than what has been widely reported Documents published alongside the spring statement last week, revealed the true scale and impact of the government’s benefit cuts for ill and disabled people — but only if you knew to look beyond the headline figures.
Make the most of the season…
Make a list Lists are great ways to stay on track. Write down some big things you want to accomplish and some smaller things, too. Check the list regularly Don’t forget to check in and see how you’re doing. Just because you don’t achieve the big goals right away doesn’t mean you’re not making progress.
Populism, State Capacity, and Why It…
Populism is on the rise around the world but the forms it takes can vary widely. Populists can align with the traditional left or right and can be liberal or conservative in their social values. What holds this diverse ideological family together is a sense that the will of the “true people” is being stymied
Offsetting Behaviour: Basic income, again
This week’s column for the Stuff papers covered the excellent new US work testing the effects of a UBI. From November 2020, 3000 low-income people were randomly assigned into two groups for three years. One thousand people each received $1000 per month in unconditional funds for three years. Two thousand people each received $50 per
True Economics: 20/6/21: COVID19: Europe and…
Updating pandemic numbers for the past week for EU27 and Europe: As the charts clearly show, Europe experienced significant declines in new cases and deaths in recent weeks, in part due to improved rates of vaccinations. The third wave is now clearly behind us in both the EU27 and Europe, although European cases are