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Good news on real aggregate payrolls, but an additional yellow flag on jobs

- by New Deal democratWith the update on inflation earlier this week, let’s take a look a real average wages and real aggregate payrolls....

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The Bonddad Blog: Jobless claims: seasonality strikes again

- by New Deal democratAs is so often the case this time of year, seasonality likely played havoc with this week’s new jobless claims....

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Jobless claims complete their reversion to pre-hurricane-disruptions trend

- by New Deal democratInitial claims have now completely reverted to trend after their recent hurricane-induced blip.Initial claims rose 3,000 for the week to...

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Real retail sales jump nicely, but we’re not out of the woods on consumption just yet

- by New Deal democratLet me start with my usual reminder that real retail sales is one of my favorite economic indicators, because it tells...

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The Bonddad Blog: Production turns more negative

- by New Deal democratIndustrial and manufacturing production slid further in October, by -0.3% and -0.5% respectively. They are also down respectively -1.2% and...

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Whither housing? A look at interest rate and inflationary considerations

- by New Deal democratStarting tomorrow we get to the time of month when the data on the important long leading sector of housing...

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Leading housing construction data stabilizes, while units under construction continue free-fall. With a continued hurricane asterisk

- by New Deal democratHousing data for October, like that for September, has to be viewed with an asterisk, due to Hurricanes Helene and...

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What to look for if housing construction does forecast a recession

- by New Deal democratNo data today, but since it is mainly a housing week, let me pick up on a topic I discussed...

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Initial claims are positive, while hurricane-adjusted continued claims are neutral

- by New Deal democratThis week’s jobless claims reflect a little more complex scenario than usual, because the hurricane effects have disappeared from initial...

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November consumer inflation remains well-contained except for the two most lagging sectors of shelter and transportation services

- by New Deal democratLet me pick up where I left off yesterday discussing trends in consumer prices.One thing I have done every month...

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