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- Personal Income and Spending Unexpectedly Decline…
Economists missed the boat by a mile on income and expenditures. Income and Outlays image top half from Bloomberg, bottom half from the BEA The BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays report for May 2025 was much weaker than economist’s consensus expected. Spending was a bit higher than I expected. To arrive at real numbers, subtract … Read more - The Road to Incoherence: Arthur Burns…
UPDATE: My concluding paragraph was inadverently deleted from my post, so even if you’ve already read the post, you may want to go back and read my concluding paragraph. Last December, Nathan Tankus wrote an essay for his substack site defending Arthur Burns and his record as Fed Chairman in the 1970s when inflation rose … Read more - Why the Tories’ “put people to…
What do you do when your economy is in the doldrums and you need to kickstart growth? Why, you put more people to work, that’s what you do. This has been the Tories’ strategy since 2010. The sustained attack on welfare benefits has all been focused on “making work pay” – encouraging, and at the … Read more - Risks to growth and inflation helping…
As I write this, the US 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 1.457%, well under the trading range it had established during this quarter. And there are a lot of theories as to why this is happening. I want to spell out how I’m thinking about the yields and what the risks and opportunities are going … Read more - Too many Superheros?
How much content should a franchise produce? A recent WSJ story indicates that the expanding Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) is approaching a deluge. The graph they created certainly indicates a huge increase in content, mostly on TV. How much to produce is an extent decision. On the one hand, the huge success of the Avengers … Read more
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Healing Through Grief: How I Found…
“When the soul wishes to experience something, she throws an
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Your Summer Adventure To Do List
While skiers and snowboarders know all about Kicking Horse’s legendary
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GDP Nowcast Dispersion plus Slowing Final…
From GDP Q1 3rd release and nowcasts plus tracking. GDPNow is down on personal income and spending release, advanced economic indicators, as well as the Q1 3rd release. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), May SPF median (tan line), GDPNow (sky blue square), Goldman Sachs (blue square), NY Fed (green triangle), St. Louis News nowcast (inverted
TheMoneyIllusion » Jeffrey Ding on China
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn I’ve been amazed by the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The most militarily expansionist leader since Hitler and Stalin starts a war that threatens to spiral out of control. He leads a country with enough weapons to destroy most of the US population. He threatens to use nuclear weapons (and is
Does Pricing Carbon Mitigate Climate Change?
Main article Despite the high costs that greenhouse gas emissions impose on society through climate change, these externalities remain largely unpriced in economic decision-making. As governments worldwide consider strengthening carbon pricing programs, our study provides encouraging evidence that—where firms can respond flexibly and are able to make investments in more efficient production processes—such market-based instruments
Macro Briefing: 27 June 2025
US initial jobless claims pulled back last week as continuing claims continued rising. The number of Americans collecting unemployment insurance on a recurring basis rose to the highest level in 3-1/2 years — a possible warning sign for the labor market. “The data are consistent with softening of labor market conditions, particularly
The MA Program at John Jay-CUNY…
I teach economics at John Jay College of the City University of New York, home of one of the country’s leading MA programs in heterodox economics. And we are accepting applications for Fall 2025. This is a pitch for why people should study economics here. If that’s not for you, that’s ok; but please
The Effects of Modern Monetary Theory…
For the record. From an Austrian economist. Abstract This paper analyzes the debt monetization proposals of Modern Monetary Theory from an Austrian structure of production perspective. It shows that this policy raises societal time preferences and reduces the number of higher order stages in the economy, leading to a higher interest rate, lower economic growth,
Trump halts US-Canada trade talks over…
Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free Your guide to what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the world Donald Trump said the US was “terminating” trade talks with Canada in retaliation against a new digital services tax on tech companies, reopening a trade war between the countries after months of détente.
Final Look at Local Housing Markets…
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 11:12:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that
Demons deserve our sympathy
My latest Coppola Comment post reflects on what we mean by “demons”. Are they really the evil spirits of myth? Or are they a metaphor for something else – something all too human, and for many people, all too familiar? I spent last Saturday singing Elgar’s Dream of Gerontius. There’s a famous “Demon’s Chorus” in
Let’s become Neuro Legends – John…
Hi everyone I’m riding 130km on Sunday to raise money for the Brissie to the Bay cycle for MS Queensland, my longest running fundraising event. I reached my target of $2000, with a couple of days to spare. So of course, I’ve set my sights higher. The top level in the fundraising hierarchy is “Neuro