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  • Personal Income and Spending Unexpectedly Decline…
    Economists missed the boat by a mile on income and expenditures. Income and Outlays image top half from Bloomberg, bottom half from the BEA The BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays report for May 2025 was much weaker than economist’s consensus expected. Spending was a bit higher than I expected. To arrive at real numbers, subtract … Read more
  • The Road to Incoherence: Arthur Burns…
    UPDATE: My concluding paragraph was inadverently deleted from my post, so even if you’ve already read the post, you may want to go back and read my concluding paragraph. Last December, Nathan Tankus wrote an essay for his substack site defending Arthur Burns and his record as Fed Chairman in the 1970s when inflation rose … Read more
  • Why the Tories’ “put people to…
    What do you do when your economy is in the doldrums and you need to kickstart growth? Why, you put more people to work, that’s what you do. This has been the Tories’ strategy since 2010. The sustained attack on welfare benefits has all been focused on “making work pay” – encouraging, and at the … Read more
  • Risks to growth and inflation helping…
    As I write this, the US 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 1.457%, well under the trading range it had established during this quarter. And there are a lot of theories as to why this is happening. I want to spell out how I’m thinking about the yields and what the risks and opportunities are going … Read more
  • Too many Superheros?
    How much content should a franchise produce? A recent WSJ story indicates that the expanding Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) is approaching a deluge. The graph they created certainly indicates a huge increase in content, mostly on TV. How much to produce is an extent decision. On the one hand, the huge success of the Avengers … Read more

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