by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 11:12:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales
A brief excerpt:
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in May.
There were several key stories for May:
• Sales NSA are down year-over-year (YoY) through May, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995! The YoY comparisons will be easier the next several months, so sales in 2025 might be close to the level in 2024.
• Sales SA were down YoY for the 4th consecutive month and 41 of the last 45 months.
• Months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 (tying one month near the start of the pandemic).
• The median price is barely up YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see more price declines.
Sales at 4.03 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were above the consensus estimate; however, housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate was right on (usually very close).
Sales averaged close to 5.44 million SAAR for the month of May in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
…In May, sales in these markets were down 3.8% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were also down 3.8% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales in May were down 4.0% YoY NSA, so this sample is close.
Important: There were fewer working days in May 2025 (21) as in May 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was higher than for the NSA data. According to the NAR, seasonally adjusted sales were only down 0.7% YoY in May.
…
More local data coming in July for activity in June!
There is much more in the article.